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Tuesday, December 21, 2010

The Information War

// The Information War
// December 21, 2010 at 2:59 AM
http://charleshorse.wordpress.com/2010/12/21/the-information-war

LIVE POKER is the pure game. online poker can be described as a vast laboratory in which to test out one’s personal theory of profitable poker – a realistic simulation. it has the advantage of allowing the player to experience hands at a highly accelerated rate: about twice as many per hour, multiplied by each additional simultaneous table!

♣   ♦   ♥   ♠

tonight at dinner, a friend - without experience in poker - asked me about the 'poker face' angle of the game, which I took to mean the concept of spotting physical 'tells' in your opponent's facial expressions and/or body lingo, ideally providing helpful clues to deciphering their hidden cards (or more realistically: their state of mind).

this is an aspect of the game which is widespread throughout pop culture, I would argue, because it is something that lends itself to being portrayed in film, tv and song. think of paul newman stone-cold bluffing all his money with junk cards in cool hand luke or kenny rogers' iconic ode to 'the gambler' who had made his

life out of readin' people's faces
and knowing what their cards were by the way they held their eyes.

bottom line: poker can be summed up as an 'information war' in which, to have any success in the long term, a player must take in way more than they give off - must have information surplus, not deficit. so, whether I face a given opponent online or in person, my (dual) task remains the same:
  1. make effective use of all info at my disposal
  2. do my best not to let my own play fall into any detectable patterns.

--
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Monday, December 13, 2010

12/13 Huge spot declined with trouble-hand

// Huge spot declined with trouble-hand
// December 13, 2010 at 12:58 AM
http://charleshorse.wordpress.com/2010/12/13/huge-spot-declined-with-trouble-hand-2/

Everything happened so quickly, I didn't think to capture any screenshots. Let me set the stage. We were past the break, just starting to ante, in a $10 R/A on a fishy site. I had around 37 BB, and had been at my table for a while, with a TAG regular on my right who had me covered. One of the tournament chip leaders (with an enviable stack over 100 BB) who had seemingly been playing normally and aggressively, suddenly overbet all-in from UTG, got called by KK, then showed down a holding of JTo... "Chip dumping," joked one player. The bigstack politely informed the table, "I have somewhere to be," which saved anyone clever from having to ask it.

To defend himself in this manner was to announce unequivocally - if not explicitly - the unilateral superimposition of a new, volatile metagame. He was about to commit tournament suicide. It would be messy and might go on awhile, since he had the whole table covered. Anyone with experience at these stakes should now anticipate this player to be either
  1. all-in every single hand, regardless of action/cards
  2. all-in with any decent holding, regardless of action/cards
  3. somewhat sensitive to action/cards, but no longer wagering any amount less than all-in
In all cases, we expect this strategy philanthropy to remain in effect until he either
  1. wins the whole tourney in short order
  2. goes bust in flames 
  3. has a change of heart
    Most likely, every chip he has (still 75 BB!) will very soon be virtually donated to one or two lucky opponents with fish-isolation skills. This bizarre scenario demands a careful strategy for entering pots in which he has not yet folded. When the table captain tells you "It's midnight" you are better off resetting your watch - even if the sun is out!

    For the purpose of this analysis, I will assume a zero chance that he is being dishonest. Even if it were a ruse, designed to provoke light calls when he picks up a monster, his next orbit's worth of dealt holdings (crucial to the outcome of such a campaign) still rate to be as random as any other. So the most relevant factors to consider, once he has chosen to put a full table of opponents "on notice", must be
    1. how often he then starts shoving
    2. over what types of preceding action.

    As it turns out, I was denied the luxury of any additional profiling. On the very next deal I received AQs, a desirable hand to hold in a massive one-on-one confrontation. I had my sights on the bigstack, now seated in the BB position. Since I was certain he would shove, even as a pure steal, into a lack of aggressive action in front of him, my plan was to disguise my near-premium holding by open-limping or over-limping, fully intending to call his all-in or shove all-in myself, if he or anyone else were to raise only a portion of their chips. A pretty transparent counter-strategy, but I doubt if that actually mattered.

    A WRINKLE IN THE PLAN

    I was on the threshold of middle table position. To my chagrin, the TAG regular seated just to my right raised the minimum, to 400. He had above-average chips, about 11 000; most stack sizes were in the same range as mine (~7500). Anyone might benefit from stealing the roughly 550 in blinds and antes, but the looming threat of a maniacal re-steal was likely to keep thinking players honest. Therefore I couldn't put the TAG on an early position steal: I considered him intelligent enough to know that a weak 2x open will not get all the way through in general, surely not under these circumstances. So I asked myself why he would want to make a bet that was likely to be over-raised all-in; maybe even called, raised, then re-raised all-in...

    I concluded that he was probably following an all-purpose strategy similar to my own plan, with a slightly tighter range to account for position: not planning to fold pre-flop, correctly anticipating - in fact likely rooting for - at least one shove! If this was true then the TAG wanted me to shove, so that couldn't be a very good idea. He would insta-call; I would usually be drawing to 3 outs, either my single overcard (vs a big pair) or underkicker (vs Big Slick). To fold to such a tiny bet would be absurd, while the last point alone dissuaded me from re-raising - not to mention the disastrous possible error of somehow scaring off the BB's maverick all-in action by showing strength!

    I felt a cold call was indicated. Calling had several benefits:
    1. lowering risk by keeping pot small until action "inevitably" returns and more is known
    2. under-repping my hand to anyone unsensitive of shift in metagame
    3. occasionally seeing flop with an excellent multiway hand, with position on TAG and BB
    4. occasionally letting me resume my original plan, if TAG unexpectedly folds to BB's shove
    The last benefit acted as a hedge against my inkling that the TAG was looking to stack-off. I could have been happily wrong on that point, because if his range was wider than it seemed then the bigstack's shove would occasionally act as an induced isolation move, which I could promptly snap off.

    The drawback to cold-calling was that it would complicate all subsequent decisions. But with so little concrete information to work with, and such tasty implied odds, I felt it best to wryly invest 400 chips and re-assess before committing the remaining 7000! Once I'd called, the pot totalled 1350; everyone folded to the BB who jammed his 15 000 on cue. Not the worst sized bluff "on paper", but much less likely to induce folds from opponents you have warned before-hand (literally). The original raiser thought for long enough to seem like he had a decision - then called the overbet with all his chips.

    HUGE SPOT: CALL OR FOLD?

    Implied odds are no longer a factor as I am closing the action. If I call, the pot will be 23K, which is just under 3.1x my stack. The pot odds are ~2.1:1 so my AQs needs 32.5% equity to break even vs this pair of opponents. Facing firm evidence that the TAG was not on any form of steal, I deduce that his range must consist of hands he plays this way for value, basically never a hand I dominate.

    With my prior read on this player, I assign him [TT+,AQs+,AKo] and fold with a sigh, deeming it unwise to play such an enormous pot - even to triple up - when my "trouble hand" is so often dominated: Any large pair crushes me, as does AK. I am not confused by the hollywood; he has probably figured that a snap call will let me off the hook if I hold a middle pair. His bluff inducing mini-raise/call was a pre-meditated move which I saw coming, and immediately became the most important factor in my decision.

    NIGHT TERRORS BEGONE

    Upon folding, I wince to see the tight regular expose the biggest underpair to my hand! He wins a huge pot when JJ defeats a holding of QTo, drawing slim (but live) due to my generous laydown. If I had managed to find a call in this particular spot, I would have encountered close to the best possible scenario: a roughly 40% chance to triple my chips. The result compels me to question my logic and run some numbers in PokerStove, which ultimately confirm my intuition. Based upon the action in the hand, the BB's range is practically irrelevant. Even if we insert some bluffs and thin value hands into the TAG's range, we still don't obtain the required 32.5% equity.

    I was able to use position to my advantage and get away from the hand cheaply. I must conclude that the fold of AQs was mathematically justified against the combination of a random hand and the very "confident" hand range repped by the TAG. Having a proven skill edge over the field meant not needing to risk all my chips in a single big race... Still, the gambler in me wanted to make a monster call - despite the chance of taking the worst of it - for a shot to exploit the utility of a 100+BB megastack.

    --
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    Thursday, December 9, 2010

    You are entitled to shed 25% of Gondorff's tears

    With top & bottom pair, I check/raise/jammed this flop for value.
    Assumed he had top pair.

    Monday, December 6, 2010

    A staking concept: selling packages

    The Inside Look of a Professional Poker Player: Supernova Elite December Challenge: "This will be the toughest challenge I have faced. 400,000 VPP's in 31 days and I need your help. I am selling three types of packages for t..."

    Sunday, December 5, 2010

    Nick K-E aka iammee73 gets 2nd in Ongame's Aussie Daily (ain't no half stepping)


    This was a hard fought battle indeed. While your hero cruised to the final table via. two or three 50/50's and some well orchestrated thievery, half of this 4 hour grind was spent shorthanded against some rather tough opponents. Fortunately the best player at the final table and the biggest stack was to my right which enabled me to avoid some potentially difficult situations.

    -Key mistake shorthanded: when 5 handed I was trying to avoid said enemy two to my right but picked up KJs. I called enemy's (tight) standard 2.5 x raise in pos. and flopped top pair K's with a KQx flop. (we both had about 35 BB's and were basically tied for 1st place with the next highest stack having no more than 20 BB's and the 2 others roughly 10 BB's each).

    -Note that there were 49 entrants at 109$ each and top 7 paid. The bulk of the prize pool was in the top two spots; roughly 993$ for 2nd and 1433$ for 1st

    -So naturally said enemy followed up on the flop with a standard 1/2 pot c-bet. Your hero half-stepped by raising minimum (note that when I make a weak play like this I can't help but think of the song: Ain't no Half Steppin' by Big Daddy Kane). Enemy called, turn came 8 and we both checked river came 2
    and enemy fires a healthy 2/3 pot bet. Since I couldn't really put him/her on a hand that beat me I called with top pair J kicker. Enemy promptly turned over pocket 8's for a set of 8's which made me thoroughly ill, he had turned trips! arggghhh!!!. Pretty unlucky; But why did I raise min. on the flop? Well I was v. concerned about my pos. visa vis the other players. What was I scared of? KQ or AK was my unnatural fear.

    -Solution: I should have made a healthy raise on the flop of at least 3.5x+ to put my opponent to the test. Instead I made a raise which was easily called by a v. large range of hands.

    -Fortunately for me I doubled right away and continued to play solidly for the duration of the tournament.

    Moral of the story: Don't half step and never fear the unlikely.

    Saturday, December 4, 2010

    Recommended Reading

    As a poker philosopher I would highly recommend that anyone looking to take their game to a higher level, read; The Art Of War by: Sun Tzu and Zen and The Art of Archery by: Eugen Herrigel

    -So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you can win a hundred battles without a single loss.
    If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you may win or may lose.
    If you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always endanger yourself


    -Therefore one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the most skillful. Seizing the enemy without fighting is the most skillful.

    -Never will those who wage war tire of deception. -Sun Tzu (The Art of War)

    l(...) The archer ceases to be conscious of himself as the one who is engaged in hitting the bull's-eye which confronts him. This state of unconscious is realized only when, completely empty and rid of the self, he becomes one with the perfecting of his technical skill, though there is in it something of a quite different order which cannot be attained by any progressive study of the art (...)" - Eugen Harrigel (Zen and The Art of Archery)


    calling with 44


    Friday, December 3, 2010

    Life Smart Ep. 2

    Thuy Doan w/Barry Greenstein
    (from pokerstatic.com)

    12/3 The Meditations of Charles Horse

         
        The Meditations of Charles Horse    
       
    3 December, 2010 00:30
    December 2, 2010 at 7:30 PM
     

    “The river blocker aka ‘price-setting bet’ is most effective when used sparingly vs. a good player, or vs. a player who isn’t paying attention to sizing”
    Colin Moshman


    Media Files
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    3 out of 40
    December 2, 2010 at 5:20 PM
     

    Fact: 7.5% of all inductees to the Poker Hall Of Fame died at the poker table!


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    Tuesday, November 30, 2010

    250K freeroll on new Quebec-only site

    miam miam

    "EspaceJeux will also host a $250,000 promotional freeroll scheduled on February 13, 2011 at 5PM. There will be qualifier tournaments from December 1st to February 12th. This freeroll is massive by online poker standards."

    http://www.canadapoker.com/loto-quebec-espacejeux-online-gambling-website-goes-live

    11/30 The Meditations of Charles Horse

    The Meditations of Charles Horse
    I Love My Affiliate
    November 29, 2010 at 11:53 PM
    Can’t stress enough how much of a boost it is to grind cash games with a solid VIP deal in place. Signing up at Betfred two years ago, through the UKSP affiliate, may have been my most profitable all-time poker decision. Personalized support and a staggering rate of return on rake – regardless of hand volume – have done wonders for my peace of mind and the health of my bankroll.

    Stu Ungar's 3rd and final WSOP ME FT
    November 29, 2010 at 7:36 AM
    Contested out of doors, another hot day on Fremont Street, inside The Experience.
    Air conditioning installed beneath the table, so that a cool breeze from below mingles with warm desert wind, resulting in miniature weather patterns which have cards flying.

    [http://pokercast.twoplustwo.com/pokercast.php?pokercast=105]
    Mel Judah interview



    'None of you seem to understand…'
    November 29, 2010 at 5:09 AM
    Have been grinding NL50 and NL100 for about a week.
    Cashing in on a great many hours of 6-handed video training.
    Feeling renewed confidence amping up aggression in confined spaces.
    Here is a fictional account of a hand where I trapped & melted a villain: